Status Report

Overview

This report provides an overview of the current state of the hospital system and recommendations for capacity management to address the surge in demand. Recommendations for capacity adjustments, patient transfers, and admission targets have been mathematically optimized to minimize the surge capacity required while not performing too many transfers and obeying operational constraints. However, these recommendations are based on predictions of future patient arrivals, and do not capture all dynamics of the problem, so they should be used as a guide rather than a definitive plan.
For further control over the decision recommendation process, use the decision recommendation page. For more visualizations of the historical data and forecasts, see the data page. Additional details about the model and dashboard can be found on the method page or in our paper.
Note: The current version of this dashboard is based on a (realistic) hypothetical hospital system and scenario that we have created for demonstration purposes.

Parameters

In this analysis we use the latest long-term forecast and we consider the SCENARIO scenario. We also use the following parameters:

• Operational occupancy: OPERATIONALOCCUPANCY
• Maximum ICU transfers per day: TRANSFERBUDGET-ICU COVID ICU patients
• Maximum acute transfers per day: TRANSFERBUDGET-ACUTE COVID acute patients
• Surge capacity preference: All hospitals equal

Summary

Our model suggests that optimal COVID patient transfers can reduce surge capacity needs in the hospital system ICUs by at least SURGEREDUCTION-ICU from SURGE-NOTRANSFERS-ICU bed days to SURGE-TRANSFERS-ICU bed days from TIMEPERIOD. The figures below show the optimal surge timeline for each hospital in the system and the optimal transfer amounts.

Admission Targets

The following tables show the daily average admissions for the hospital system (right-most column) and the target admissions for each hospital to stay within the operational occupancy limit for each of the possible capacity levels.